Do I Need to Lube My Keyboard Switches?
Figure 1: Sometime around here is a good time to ask that question... If you’re new to the mechanical keyboard hobby, I have no doubt that planning your first keyboard build is a bit of a daunting task. To be entirely honest with you, it’s only a tiny bit less daunting for your second or even third keyboard builds should you stay around a little while longer. You’ve got the keyboard itself to worry about, stabilizers, keycaps, and even switches on top of all of the intangible marks you want your dream keyboard to hit. Switches are especially daunting right out of the gate as there’s just so many options out there to pick from – each with their own unique specifications, manufacturers, and more. Yet, in spite of all of these differences between switches, time and time again I find people always asking about lubing switches as one of their chief concerns when it comes to picking some up. With countless numbers of content creators talking about lubing switches, its no...
Apr 17, 2024
I hope I'll see you around for Oblivion nonetheless, but can understand if you choose not to!
SP has a limited capacity, they can only produce so much at a time. I believe they have a single manufacturing line for SA key caps. The lead time is literally how long it will take to produce all the other in progress group buys and custom orders to GET TO your caps. The only way to produce carbon faster, would be to jump everything else in line, but that just means you delay something else.
I don't expect Dasher/Dancer ppl would be too happy if you told them you delayed their set, nor would people who ordered SA strong spirit, or people who ordered SA 1965 or SA Ocean Dolch or SA Senna or SA 88 Commando or SA Photo Studio or SA Blue Mods or SA Cream Cheese & Green or SA Corner Creatures.
That's at least 10 other open group buys for SP SA Double-Shots. How would you explain to all of them why they were ALL delayed because some people couldn't deal with the wait on carbon.
It's not that they CAN'T produce any given set faster, it's that people are literally running group buys and ordering more custom key caps than they have the CAPACITY to produce, so even with constant production, there is a queue.
So yes, sure SP COULD add another line, but I would imagine 9 months lead time isn't even close enough to justify the cost of expansion. You have to keep in mind, an expansion only works if it is viable LONG TERM. The cost of equipment for a second line and the extra costs associated with running it would be TREMENDOUS up front. They would need new machines, more space, etc. I bet it would be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. So then you gotta think, what would the end result be?
The lead time is slowly growing for sure, but will it last? How long? Will the rate increase or decrease? As it stands right now, I bet if they added a second SA doubleshot line, they could start reducing the lead time, which is great for us, but what would the benefit be to SP? Reducing lead time sounds great in theory, until you realize what it actually means. Reducing lead time means you are operating under capacity, and that is bad, as that means, once you have killed your queue your expensive investment is just sitting there idle.
The point being no company is going to invest in increasing capacity unless they are also expecting to increase volume to match. We are talking about spending what would likely be more than the net profit they will make on the entire SA Carbon order. It just doesn't make sense to blow that much money unless the end result is doubling sales, which seems ambitious and risky.
I bet if in another year or two or three the queue has continued to grow and orders are still rolling in, then they MIGHT consider a second keycap line, but for now I imagine it's extremely unlikely.
For what it's worth, it seems to me like general consumer awareness and uptake of mech boards is growing rapidly. I know Carbon was a bit of an exception but looking at other active popular drops like Nautilus it certainly seems like we're now in the domain of desirable keysets regularly selling thousands of base-kit units per-drop rather than hundreds (as has been the case up until very recently).
Given the growing user-base it seems highly unlikely the demand for this will drop below the current levels anytime soon, and if anything is more likely to increase (although granted that is purely speculation on my part).
I think the problem SP are going to have if they don't expand capacity and the backlog does keep growing is that people start to pursue alternate options. Companies in China are already starting to fill this void in producing SA sets in reasonable time frames and it certainly seems like a growing number of people are willing to sacrifice the benefits of SP in terms of quality & compatibility to get SA keysets produced faster (and also generally cheaper).
The more this continues to happen the more incentive that the Chinese factories have to invest in their production capabilities and QC processes etc. and become really viable alternates to SP.
Now, as a consumer this is great as there's more choice/options out there. If I was in SP's shoes though I'd be looking at how I could stem the rise of alternate SA manufacturers and try to keep hold of what is currently a pretty dominant market position.....and looking from the outside in it certainly seems like the major reason people are starting to go elsewhere is the production delays.....
I guess that's really my point though, even with all their issues they still have a huge queue of buyers lining up to the point where they can't realistically take any more orders now. It screams opportunity and if they can't figure out a way to meet that demand someone else almost certainly will.