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How long do you think till it sells out?
I'm going to estimate that it sells out within 24 hours. There were almost 4000 people who requested this drop and it sold more than one-eighth of the maximum units in the first hour. A poll might be fun ... if MD was here they could offer a prize for the closest pick.
This drop will stay active until the end. This is essentially like a pre-order that will be fulfilled by the August 10 delivery date (barring any unexpected delays).
Even with the drop limited to 800 kits?
Oh my bad, didn't see that. Sheesh, 800 kits, well now I'm not so sure...
Shit. Do you think there will be some left in 2 hours?
I think so ... 100+ sold in the first hour and it's going to take about 1.75 hours to sell the second hundred. I'm going to say that in two hours it will be around 300 units. There will probably be some bumps as other parts of the world wake up. It's a holiday weekend in the U.S. so people here may not see their notifications right away either.
It took me three hours to find out about it.
So I was a little over-optimistic about the ramp-down from the initial pace. About 500 units had been sold at the 24 hour mark.
looks like a slow sale ...
Yes ... it's slowed down tremendously. Since it's a holiday weekend in the U.S. (with Monday being a day off), I wonder if we'll see a bunch of people notice this drop on Tuesday morning. I obviously wouldn't have won the prize if we were trying to estimate when the 800th unit sold. In fact, I'm still a bit surprised that it hasn't sold out already considering 4000 people requested the drop. Oh well ... I've got my second kit on order!
request numbers are often 10x higher than actual buyers
I haven't tried to correlate the number of requests with the number actually purchased - 10% seems lower than I would have predicted but I guess I've shown that I'm overly optimistic several times already.
for very cool items like the ergodox it may be only 5x (9999 requests vs 2000 sold)
but the numbers are not compareable.
a user can do only one request
a user can purchase more than one item per drop (so 6000 purchases of a keycap set means only around 2000 buyers)