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MASSDROP: PLEASE CLARIFY THIS. The way it is worded means EVERY person will have a chance to get 5 heaven 6's, 20 heaven 5's aging etc. The reason I ask... If we only get 75 orders, will that mean that only heaven 4's and 5s are offered?
Thought I would be nice enough to post the odds:
The numbers are pretty simple, but hey why not :)?!
Heaven IV: 45 people will get this. (This is what you are paying for)
Heaven V: 30 people will get this. (This will net you 150$ better set)
Heaven V Aging: 20 people will get this. (This will net you 200$ better set)
Heaven VI: 5 people will get this. (This will net you 215$ better set)
If unlocked ONLY 1 person will ADDITIONALLY GET :
50 units purchased: Heaven VII ($599 value) [LOCKED] (Lucky 1)
75 units purchased: Heaven VIII ($699 value) [LOCKED](Lucky 1)
100 units purchased: FI-BA-SS ($999 value) [LOCKED](Lucky 1)
The way I read it is the number of participants will be put into a number generator that assigns a value that correlates to a specific iem. 45% of those numbers are prize 1, 30% are prize 2, 20% are prize 3, 5% are prize 4. In addition if the bonus prizes are unlocked their "numbers" will be included and randomly assigned. So the only time participant size matters is with the bonus prizes at 50/75/100 participants. Each entry has roughly the same odds of each prize if done in this manner, regardless of ending number of participants. Now the final percentage of items received will vary if the drop doesn't sell out. E.g. all 5 Heaven VI numbers are assigned but only 80 units are sold. That would net greater than 5% of all iem's received were Heaven VI but each entry would still only have a 5% chance of getting one of those.
Wanted to clear up the confusion here. When the drop ends, 45% of the total number sold will be Heaven IV, 30% Heaven V, 20% Heaven V Aging, and 5% Heaven VI. Doesn't matter how many that number is, items will be randomly allocated based on those odds.
For the sweetening the pot prizes the chances are 1/total number of participants, so if we sell out the drop the chances of receiving one of those are 3/100.
I am concerned about the odds on this grab bag. What you are essentially telling us is that due to the vagaries of randomness, for example, it's entirely possible that at 5% chance no one in this drop will get the Heaven VI.
First a question, will it be disclosed how many of each headphone are distributed to buyers of this drop? (I like transparency that reassures me that there's no funny business going on).
Second a suggestion, I think a better way to do this would be a faux randomness. Specifically since this drop is limited to 100 people then you should give out exactly 5 Heaven VI, 20 Heaven V aging, 30, Heaven 5, and 45 heaven IV, and randomly select who gets what (the 3 higher "prizes" can be taken out of the Heaven IV quota).
To me that sounds more fair than telling us that we have a 5% chance of getting a Heaven VI and then no one gets one because the random machine didn't roll that for someone.
In response to this you might say something like "blah blah X reason we can't do exact quotas" and I would say that there is already an exact quota of 1 each for the higher end prize headphones.
Thanks for reading.
I think your "faux randomness" is how they are planning to do it. Nicpope said that exactly 5 Heaven VI, 20 Heaven V aging, 30 Heaven V, etc will be given out if the drop sold out, which it did. I have faith that Massdrop is honest in this regard.
It wont be just a random number generator for each set because like you said, it would be possible no one receives a pair of Heaven VIs, but in theory all 100 could also turn up to be Heaven VI's (although statistically very unlikely with a probability of 0.05^100). Massdrop (or any business minded organization for that fact) wouldn't run their grab bags like this.
What I don't know though is how the prizes are awarded. Like you, I hope it gets taken out of the Heaven IV stock since that ups everyone's chances at a nicer set of IEMs.
His post is just 2 pages back
"Doesn't matter how many that number is, items will be randomly allocated based on those odds."
To me that clearly states that the number of each are NOT set. Since they said the placed the order to FAD already who gets what has apparently been decided, but based on that quote I believe my post above is correct.
Rhenom, You have to also read the sentence right before the one you quoted which says "When the drop ends, 45% of the total number sold will be Heaven IV, 30% Heaven V, 20% Heaven V Aging, and 5% Heaven VI. " The next sentence that you quoted says "Doesn't matter how many that number is, items will be randomly allocated based on those odds." This means that of the 100 ordered, 45 will be Heaven IVs, etc. and the probability of each order being that is the same because of how many IEMs were ordered, and not the other way around. Taking a specific sentence out of context does make it seem that they could game the system though :P
Edit: but you are still right about the "prizes." if they take out a Heaven VI from the lot to replace it with the prizes I feel like that is a bit scammy. I feel like the final count of actual IEMs distributed should be 42 Heaven IVs' instead of 45 and the rest remain the same.
First, yes I read the whole thing but I felt the sentence that I quoted to be the more important one, hence why I quoted it. I don't think that it is out of context. I will admit that in a small way the two sentences seem to contradict each other, but the second sentence clearly says to me that they aren't working with set numbers, where as the first is just poorly worded.
If they were, in fact, going to give out a set number of each item, they did not allow for where the 3 top prizes fit in. If that was the case they probably would have told us how that worked, instead he wrote that second sentence to clearly tell us that the 3 top prizes will be randomly allocated, and the rest will be randomly allocated based on the % odds he gave, hence I was concerned, given the small % for the Heaven VI.
But I'm sure I'm just talking to a brick wall here and you are going to believe whatever you want until a Massdrop employee comes back on here and tells you I'm right (which I'm pretty sure I am, the second sentence seems definitive). This is my last post on the topic, bye.