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Ok, sure, but why didn't you factor any of the other unlocked prizes into this as well? A select few people out there are paying $28.99 and will be getting a nice DAC/amp or set of over ear headphones.
This is the gambler's fallacy. It's illogical (the house is vastly advantaged to win), but it's fun for those that enjoy it, and there are many.
I won't be buying in to this drop, but I totally understand that many people love taking the small chance at a big win
I mean even after seeing this i am going to keep my purchase. I am buying 2 so even so there is an 80% (ish) chance I come close to breaking even or better. Plus even if I don't get anything better I am still happy to pay a little extra for massdrop customer support and warranty (they have been good to me before) vs some shady website that conveniently has a sale going on that I haven't tried before.
Just my two cents but its just a point of view you may have missed, cheers,
P.S. on the link you provided for the CX 2 shipping is insane bring the price to close to 50 bucks for me, so not a great deal
not in some countries, in my country they marked up this earphone
You have a 1:500 chance at $99, which is a $0.19 value, and a 1:2000 chance at $99 ($0.05), $199 ($0.10), $299 ($0.15), etc. Those are lottery odds and not even worth considering in analyzing the value of the drop. You are buying a pair of headphones plus paying $9 for a 30% chance at saving $8 or a 10% chance of saving $31 (The CX 5.00G are $60 with free shipping at best buy). Ignore the initial headphones. To judge if it's a deal, look at just what the premium you're paying is getting you. If you would pay $9 for those chances, more power to you, but I don't think most people joining the drop appreciate how terrible this deal is.
You need to check your math :) Your odds don't scale unless your cost scales, so you're far, far from an 80% chance of breaking even. You maintain a 30% chance of breaking even. Also, the customer service on this drop the last time it was run was really, really awful (just scroll down, the history is there). You obviously know better than me what provides you value in a purchase, I just don't like when Massdrop makes it seem like they're offering a deal or value when they're selling raffle tickets at best.
That's pretty much exactly what I said...? I don't consider it "just a few bucks" when it's a 45% premium over the retail price, but i don't see a distinction between "buying a chance" and "buying a raffle ticket."
Good catch on the CX2. They can be readily found for ~$40 with free shipping, but the colamco price ($37) does seem to incorporate a shipping discount.
You are right, massdrop is selling raffle tickets, and that does make the little kid in me come out a little, but lets say you can get the 2.00 for 40 bucks, your spending 28.50 for said chance at a certain iem. Well there is a 60 percent chance that you get one that costs 20 (regardless of my opinion on the company selling it) that is a potential loss of 9 bucks, and there is 30 percent chance of a gain of 12 bucks assuming the 40 for 2.00 and then the 10 percent chance that you get the 5.00 which is 60 bucks (I need the andriod version, its only 50 if ios is your system of choice) on amazon. That makes it a 30 dollar gain. Since I am buying two to break even, roughly I would need to receive one 1.00 (-9) and one 2.00 (+12), there is a 60 percent chance of that occurring because two 30% chances of receiving one 2.00 over the 2 purchases. Then there is also the possibility that I could luck out and get one of 5.00 (+30) and one 1.00(-9) and there is a 20 percent chance of that due to the two 10% chances, and 60% +20% is 80, and while that is not perfect math due to the possibility of two 2.00 and two 5.00 and one 5.00 and one 2.00 and the 1/2000 chance of one of those extra prizes, but it is pretty close. Pretty much if you got two there is a 20% chance of an 18$ "loss" a 60 percent chance of a 3 dollar "gain", and a 20 percent chance of a 21 dollar "gain" So overall there is at least a break even or a bit of a discount with this drop. (plus everything comes in retail packaging which some people care about and is more expensive to ship in). So its not like its a game of craps, they are not out to steal ignorant peoples money, they are saving everyone as a whole money (not much but ill take what I can get :) ). Of course there will be some people that could have done better else wise if they wanted to but its not like its a complete ripoff either.
Sorry for the block of text but i just wanted to explain my logic, I was not assuming chances doubled when prices doubled.
if you want the true chances of two orders here they are:
36% chance of loss of ~18 2x1.00
36% chance of gain of ~3 1x1.00 1x2.00
12% chance of gain of ~21 1x1.00 1x5.00
9% chance gain of ~24 2x2.00
6% chance gain of ~42 1x2.00 1x5.00
1% chance gain of ~60 2x5.00
this averages out to a gain of ~$1.20 per order or $2.40 per order of two (this will be more like 5.40 because i didn't account for the cheaper shipping on the second pair)
(there is a .1% (.05% per order) chance of receiving one of the more expensive items but i didn't bother with the math)
We just love to gamble. Roll the dice baby woohoo!