Massdrop Mega Mystery Box Discussions | Drop

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Apr 26, 2019

$100 for a mystery? Um, no thanks. My local 'Orchids of Asia' has a similar mystery box deal, usually best resolved with a 10-day course of penicillin and a week away from work. It seems like a good idea until you put the beer down and start thinkin'. The gambler in me looks at this as a pot odds comparison - promising $200 worth of goods for $100. The problem becomes is if half or more of the goods is junk I don't want. And looking at MD, there is a good chance I end up with a swatch of knitting goods, a pair of selvedge jeans at 92% odds they don't fit, or a zippo lighter - all things I have neither the need nor want to own. Say 25% of the items on Massdrop are things I like. Therefore, the expected value of the box is 25% of $200 - or $50. So I'm really paying $100 for probably $50 worth of things I want. But wait! Unless I get the uber high dollar expensive item. Of which there are 75 items IIRC, say worth $500. So assume that 1000 people go for this box thing and each box is limited to one of the uber expensive items, I've got a 7.5% chance of getting one of those items. 7.5% of $500 is $37.5. And the odds of me liking/needing that item are probably about the same as every other item - 25%. So now the expected value of the uber item is $9.38 (rounding up). So the total expected value of this item is $59.38 to me if 1000 purchase (actually, need 1000 equivalent $100 units are purchased, as the $250 units are essential buying the same $100 box 2.5 times). So...yeah. Hard pass.

Apr 26, 2019

3ogus

Apr 26, 2019

BadchileRed or Green?

Apr 26, 2019

G3n3r1c

216

Apr 26, 2019

BadchileThey sold off the odds and ends watches separately -- I passed on that one too. The watches had very clear value, but some of them were goofy no-name brands too. So, the expected value is indeed lower than the purchase price.

(Edited)

Apr 26, 2019

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