Hey all, long post here. I have seen a lot of people talk about these boxes and looked into getting one myself. What I saw last month wasn't the best deal and a good amount of disappointment on Massdrop's site over the content of these boxes. If you take everything in the boxes at retail value, it's honestly an even deal. However, I am trying to shed light as to why so many people feel ripped off once they get their boxes. The problem is this: An opened pack, on average, will never be what it's worth unopened. That's part of the gamble of cracking packs. I think everyone acknowledges that fact and has accepted it. The problem I have is this:
I wish there wasn't such a large amount of variance as far as what you could get in these boxes. If you look at the individual items being priced out online, it doesn't seem too bad. Invasion, Planeshift, Visions and many of the older boosters are going for $10+. However, these are only expensive because they are old and out of print. Invasions, for example, has phyrexian alter, which is currently selling for ~$28. The problem is that Alter is the ONLY card in the set that is worth more than the booster pack itself. The next most valuable card in the set is then aura shards....an uncommon worth $6.
So, what are you really getting if you buy these boxes? If you drop $50 and get a commander deck (~$34.68 EV) and a duel deck ($17 EV) from the A tier and MM2013 ($17.12 EV) and MM2015 pack ($7.60 EV) from the B tier, you're probably pretty happy since your estimated value of return is above what you paid ($75.74). The problem is, this is the BEST case scenario. At the other end of the spectrum, you could get total trash like the Invasion pack ($1.18 EV) and a Planeshift pack ($1.77EV) for A and Origins Draft ($4.41 EV) + fifth ed. pack ($1.78 EV) for B, which yields a whopping ~ $10 EV ($9.14 to be precise). The variance is such that, as far as estimated value goes, a box costing $50 can be worth more than 8x AS MUCH as another $50 box.
Now, you might say that I am being really nit picky, and I kind of am. I have to be when writing up an analysis concerning these boxes. So I averaged all the values of the items in these boxes based on the Estimated Value of return and your chances to get them. By averaging all this, you can estimate the EV of an average box. At $50, your EV is $32.42. At $100, your EV is $84.34. At $150, your EV is $124.96. Your best bet is to go for the $100 or $150 option, and even then your EV is 84% and 83% respectively. However, this largely hinges on you not getting certain items such as dragonshield sleeves from your C group ($10 EV) and not getting a dragons of tarkir box as your D group item ($51 EV) since these two items are $10 and $15 respectively below the average EV.
Finally, even if you don't give a rat's ass about the estimated value of the packs and just like the novelty of opening old boosters, there are still more issues! For one, THEY BLATANTLY LIE TO YOU. They say on their site that the $49.99 has an $85.00 MSRP. The average retail value of those products is $60. If you were to buy the best items individually, you could barely scratch $90! But you aren’t guaranteed the best items. It’s a grab bag. In fact, if you do the math, you have a 0.59366% chance to hit the advertised retail amount of $85.
So, even if you take the items at their RETAIL VALUE, and average them out, the value you get from each box is as follows. The $50 box is worth $60 on average. (yay 20% value!) The $100 box is worth, on average, about $140 (Hot damn, that's 40% value!). Finally, the $150 is worth, an average, $178! Wait, that's only 18% value. Why am I getting the WORST deal compared to those who spend less? Why am I not getting any extra value for spending the most money? The fact is, you lose out on a lot of that value when they lower your A items by 2 (worth about $15.25 a piece on average, retail) and B by 1 ($14.70 a piece average, retail) when you jump from $100 box to $150 box for a total of $45.2. They then charge an extra $50 and give you one of four different booster boxes. This means you are essentially paying $95.20 for a booster box. The funny thing is, you can buy those boxes on that very site for $82.99. So even if you just like cracking packs, their price structure makes no sense! After shipping, you are hardly saving anything!
MassDrops Blue Boxes, in short, are horrific.
So, here's what I propose for Massdrop and their Blue Boxes:
Stop treating the items in each category as equal because of the retail price. In no world is an Invasion pack or a couple left over challenge decks from a prerelease (that have minimal use to the average player) equal to a commander deck or a duel deck or even a shadowmoor pack. I'm okay with losing a little value to cracking packs because, let's face it, cracking packs is fun! However, please don't include sets that are just plain terrible. Planeshift, for example, has a whopping 12 cards in the ENTIRE set worth more than a dollar, and only 8 of those break the 2 dollar mark. Also, getting a Fifth Edition booster (EV $1.78) just feels terrible when you could have gotten a pack of Modern Masters (17.12 EV). I'd look at the tiers and instead have a structure like this:
Group A be recent set draft packs, intro decks and duel decks. Have Group B be a little bit older sets and eternal sets such as your Return to Ravnica draft packs, Commander decks, Eternal Masters, MM + MM2015 etc. Hell, even throw dragon shield sleeves in this tier. Have C be for gear and deck boxes all worth ~$20.
Finally, let's talk about the priciest drop. Keep only the three MOST recent sets in D. The biggest issue I have here is with Dragons of Tarkir. Dragons is a set where the cards that are good are mostly good in standard and standard only. Dragons is rotating out of that format in ~3 months! Only by using boxes from the most recent sets can you ensure your buyers will get cards that they can actually use in Standard for at least a year. I would also beg that you have the final tier box keep the all the items from the middle tier. Just throw the booster box in on top of the $100 box and charge an extra $60 or something for it. This at least keeps the average savings between the two tiers equal % wise, and actually encourages your buyers to spend more.
Anyways, thanks for reading.
TL;DR The MSRP is inaccurate, don’t buy it. If you want to value everything at storefront prices, you have a good chance to break even so long as you go for the $100 tier. If you want to know if you'll open your money’s worth using EV, you won't, and don't expect to. ESPECIALLY if you go for the $50 drop.
I wish there wasn't such a large amount of variance as far as what you could get in these boxes. If you look at the individual items being priced out online, it doesn't seem too bad. Invasion, Planeshift, Visions and many of the older boosters are going for $10+. However, these are only expensive because they are old and out of print. Invasions, for example, has phyrexian alter, which is currently selling for ~$28. The problem is that Alter is the ONLY card in the set that is worth more than the booster pack itself. The next most valuable card in the set is then aura shards....an uncommon worth $6.
So, what are you really getting if you buy these boxes? If you drop $50 and get a commander deck (~$34.68 EV) and a duel deck ($17 EV) from the A tier and MM2013 ($17.12 EV) and MM2015 pack ($7.60 EV) from the B tier, you're probably pretty happy since your estimated value of return is above what you paid ($75.74). The problem is, this is the BEST case scenario. At the other end of the spectrum, you could get total trash like the Invasion pack ($1.18 EV) and a Planeshift pack ($1.77EV) for A and Origins Draft ($4.41 EV) + fifth ed. pack ($1.78 EV) for B, which yields a whopping ~ $10 EV ($9.14 to be precise). The variance is such that, as far as estimated value goes, a box costing $50 can be worth more than 8x AS MUCH as another $50 box.
Now, you might say that I am being really nit picky, and I kind of am. I have to be when writing up an analysis concerning these boxes. So I averaged all the values of the items in these boxes based on the Estimated Value of return and your chances to get them. By averaging all this, you can estimate the EV of an average box. At $50, your EV is $32.42. At $100, your EV is $84.34. At $150, your EV is $124.96. Your best bet is to go for the $100 or $150 option, and even then your EV is 84% and 83% respectively. However, this largely hinges on you not getting certain items such as dragonshield sleeves from your C group ($10 EV) and not getting a dragons of tarkir box as your D group item ($51 EV) since these two items are $10 and $15 respectively below the average EV.
Finally, even if you don't give a rat's ass about the estimated value of the packs and just like the novelty of opening old boosters, there are still more issues! For one, THEY BLATANTLY LIE TO YOU. They say on their site that the $49.99 has an $85.00 MSRP. The average retail value of those products is $60. If you were to buy the best items individually, you could barely scratch $90! But you aren’t guaranteed the best items. It’s a grab bag. In fact, if you do the math, you have a 0.59366% chance to hit the advertised retail amount of $85.
So, even if you take the items at their RETAIL VALUE, and average them out, the value you get from each box is as follows. The $50 box is worth $60 on average. (yay 20% value!) The $100 box is worth, on average, about $140 (Hot damn, that's 40% value!). Finally, the $150 is worth, an average, $178! Wait, that's only 18% value. Why am I getting the WORST deal compared to those who spend less? Why am I not getting any extra value for spending the most money? The fact is, you lose out on a lot of that value when they lower your A items by 2 (worth about $15.25 a piece on average, retail) and B by 1 ($14.70 a piece average, retail) when you jump from $100 box to $150 box for a total of $45.2. They then charge an extra $50 and give you one of four different booster boxes. This means you are essentially paying $95.20 for a booster box. The funny thing is, you can buy those boxes on that very site for $82.99. So even if you just like cracking packs, their price structure makes no sense! After shipping, you are hardly saving anything!
MassDrops Blue Boxes, in short, are horrific.
So, here's what I propose for Massdrop and their Blue Boxes:
Stop treating the items in each category as equal because of the retail price. In no world is an Invasion pack or a couple left over challenge decks from a prerelease (that have minimal use to the average player) equal to a commander deck or a duel deck or even a shadowmoor pack. I'm okay with losing a little value to cracking packs because, let's face it, cracking packs is fun! However, please don't include sets that are just plain terrible. Planeshift, for example, has a whopping 12 cards in the ENTIRE set worth more than a dollar, and only 8 of those break the 2 dollar mark. Also, getting a Fifth Edition booster (EV $1.78) just feels terrible when you could have gotten a pack of Modern Masters (17.12 EV). I'd look at the tiers and instead have a structure like this:
Group A be recent set draft packs, intro decks and duel decks. Have Group B be a little bit older sets and eternal sets such as your Return to Ravnica draft packs, Commander decks, Eternal Masters, MM + MM2015 etc. Hell, even throw dragon shield sleeves in this tier. Have C be for gear and deck boxes all worth ~$20.
Finally, let's talk about the priciest drop. Keep only the three MOST recent sets in D. The biggest issue I have here is with Dragons of Tarkir. Dragons is a set where the cards that are good are mostly good in standard and standard only. Dragons is rotating out of that format in ~3 months! Only by using boxes from the most recent sets can you ensure your buyers will get cards that they can actually use in Standard for at least a year. I would also beg that you have the final tier box keep the all the items from the middle tier. Just throw the booster box in on top of the $100 box and charge an extra $60 or something for it. This at least keeps the average savings between the two tiers equal % wise, and actually encourages your buyers to spend more.
Anyways, thanks for reading.
TL;DR The MSRP is inaccurate, don’t buy it. If you want to value everything at storefront prices, you have a good chance to break even so long as you go for the $100 tier. If you want to know if you'll open your money’s worth using EV, you won't, and don't expect to. ESPECIALLY if you go for the $50 drop.