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everyman
31
May 7, 2017
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So, there are ~ 1800 kits after 3 days. Roughly ~600 Base Kits (i.e. Buyers). From the comments I could see there were 1600 kits two days before, which basically means 100 new per day (decreasing). One third of this means *roughly* 30 kits per day. So basically - if we want to reach the highest Drop, (for the base kit at least) we would need to have:
- Double the amount of buyers for the base kit - Three times for 60% - Four times for TKL
I would bet a "full" basic TKL Kit will be at 35.99 (base) + 20.99 (60%) + 14.99 (TKL) = 71.97 (which could be 58.97 at highest drop)...
Yeah... mildly interesting - I know.
May 7, 2017
Rogery
14
May 7, 2017
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We have to wait til the last minute when all Chinese orders will be placed at once and hope they will be magically big enough for the highest drop.
May 7, 2017
Vigrith
4093
Mech Keys Moderator
May 7, 2017
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Lots of people always wait for the last minute too, not just the Chinese buyers which @Rogery mentioned which do make up a big part of the orders every time - god knows why, joining first minute as opposed to last is literally the same thing if the total is identical at the end, but it always happens.
Godspeed being a great example, it had sold like 2600 until the very last day and went on to end up at 3750 I think it was - same thing can be seen on reddit threads for these drops, there are tons of people doing those "!remind me 10 days" commands so they can decide whether or not to join at the end.
As I've said it's just silly to do that, counterproductive because if anything you can always cancel last minute if you can't afford the final price at the end; the more success at the start, the more numbers at the end, it's always directly proportional.
May 7, 2017
OnceSavedGaming
73
May 7, 2017
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I am one of those people waiting from the states because that extra ~$20 Is a big deal to me and don't want to commit if I can't save it. I'm getting real nervous that it won't hit it for the 60%. Which I find odd as who buys a base kit without at least the basic mods with the base kit.
May 7, 2017
Rogery
14
May 7, 2017
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I am also one of those guys, thats just my bad habit =))
Regarding the Chinese orders, since MD only ships to the States, they have to order through Taobao shops acting as proxies. The owners of these shops will gather them and then place on MD. Its not that they are identical to the guys like me.
May 7, 2017
Vigrith
4093
Mech Keys Moderator
May 7, 2017
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Indeed, I worded that poorly. I know that's how the taobao buys work, when I said "god knows why" I meant people like you, not the Chinese proxies haha.
It is a bad habit though, of course no one is to blame you are able to handle the situation in the way it makes you most comfortable but waiting only makes it harder for everyone, yourself included.
May 7, 2017
DecentlyOP
20
May 7, 2017
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Why do they wait until the last minute? Is this for resale? i don't see how they could make much money unless they sold the kits at a crazy markup once they are in high demand this fall when people start getting these orders.
May 7, 2017
Vigrith
4093
Mech Keys Moderator
May 7, 2017
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What they do is they run an identical group buy to this one on taobao and take in all the orders until like an hour before this one closes here on Massdrop (or less than that even) - after that they place all their orders here and proxy it to their China mainland customers thereafter (because MD doesn't ship there afaik, plus better shipping rates from bulk).
May 7, 2017
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