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Total for drop: $27 ($22.99+$3.50, rounding up)
Assuming the dice are worth $7 ... https://www.amazon.com/Translucent-Purple-Sided-Dice-12-Dice/dp/B000CEDJ70 ... and the sleeves are worth $5 ... http://www.ultrapro.com/product_list.php?cPath=70_122
... that leaves us with $15 for the tokens. Given 100 tokens, you would need to get an average token value of $0.15 to make this drop worth it (versus buying everything individually).
Token price breakpoints (53 pages total asof 09/10/2016): * $0.10 around page 15 * $0.15 around page 20 * $0.20 around page 30 * $0.25 around page 35
Seems like a gamble to me, but not a ridiculous one. Not much benefit to buying through Massdrop though, I'd expect it would be hard to beat the price; that's the point of the site, right? If the drop price reaches $18.99, the average token minimum drops to $0.11, which is a lot easier to hit.