If you are going with only one... I would personally recommend the Winter Dream 11/12 from UGQ Outdoors (with pole mod) for versatility (you give up a few ounces, more with poles). I've used a generic tarp, a Kelty Noah, a 11 foot UGQ hex tarp and the 12 foot WD with pole mods. I camp in areas and during times of year that can be very cold, very windy and or very wet. The Winter Dream has alleviated all of my issues and has room so my bridge hammock won't rub the sides (thanks to pole mod).
Edited to say the UGQ does drops on here for their tarps... probably won't see them until the "slow season" Their Black Friday sales usually keep them busy filling orders until March.