MTG Booster Pack Grab Bag (5 Packs) Discussions | Drop

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Mar 21, 2017

Calculated EV for this using Dawnglare per-pack EVs: Tier 1 pack EV is $4.53 (biggest EV hits here are Modern Masters 13 and 15, Future Sight, Foil Alara, and Zendikar , with the general majority around $4-$5 EV. Misses include 10th Edition, Betrayers, and Innistrad) Tier 2 pack EV is $2.26 (biggest EV hits are Modern Masters 17, Scars of Mirrodin, Coldsnap, and Fifth Dawn. General majority in $1-$2 range. Misses include Dragon's Maze, 8th and 9th Edition [considering their rarity])
Expected EV for this drop is $13.57. Do note though that this assumes you open all the packs, and that these packs don't go for their EV, but are marked up significantly due to collectible value, age, etc.

Vanno

Mar 22, 2017

LegendaryQI calculated $14.53. I used mtg.dawnglare's set value. My findings are very similar to yours, this doesn't fit the high standard value that we have come to expect on Massdrop.

LegendaryQ

Mar 22, 2017

VannoYeah, I totally could've missed something. Either way, our work is close enough that the EV is a pretty safe bet.

kodabb

Mar 24, 2017

LegendaryQexcellent analysis, but how did you compute it?

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LegendaryQ

Mar 26, 2017

kodabbWell, we know the probabilities of getting each pack and the EV of each pack, so the sum of (probability)*(EV) = EV of that pack in the drop. Do that 4 times for the Tier 2 and once for the Tier 1 and you have the drop EV.

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