Massdrop Mega Mystery Box Discussions | Drop

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Apr 26, 2019

$100 for a mystery? Um, no thanks. My local 'Orchids of Asia' has a similar mystery box deal, usually best resolved with a 10-day course of penicillin and a week away from work. It seems like a good idea until you put the beer down and start thinkin'. The gambler in me looks at this as a pot odds comparison - promising $200 worth of goods for $100. The problem becomes is if half or more of the goods is junk I don't want. And looking at MD, there is a good chance I end up with a swatch of knitting goods, a pair of selvedge jeans at 92% odds they don't fit, or a zippo lighter - all things I have neither the need nor want to own. Say 25% of the items on Massdrop are things I like. Therefore, the expected value of the box is 25% of $200 - or $50. So I'm really paying $100 for probably $50 worth of things I want. But wait! Unless I get the uber high dollar expensive item. Of which there are 75 items IIRC, say worth $500. So assume that 1000 people go for this box thing and each box is limited to one of the uber expensive items, I've got a 7.5% chance of getting one of those items. 7.5% of $500 is $37.5. And the odds of me liking/needing that item are probably about the same as every other item - 25%. So now the expected value of the uber item is $9.38 (rounding up). So the total expected value of this item is $59.38 to me if 1000 purchase (actually, need 1000 equivalent $100 units are purchased, as the $250 units are essential buying the same $100 box 2.5 times). So...yeah. Hard pass.

3ogus

Apr 26, 2019

BadchileRed or Green?

G3n3r1c

216

Apr 26, 2019

BadchileThey sold off the odds and ends watches separately -- I passed on that one too. The watches had very clear value, but some of them were goofy no-name brands too. So, the expected value is indeed lower than the purchase price.

(Edited)

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