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MTG Booster Box Grab Bag
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MTG Booster Box Grab Bag
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Product Description
For the Magic player who has everything (can you really have everything?), there’s the Booster Box Grab Bag, packed to the brim with exciting miscellany to grow your collection. Each participant will get a randomly selected Booster Box from a wide range of past MTG sets, from the more common to the super rare—so, if you're feeling lucky, give it a shot and you could strike it rich! Read More
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keyboard_arrow_downagentmayhem
74
May 4, 2018
The good news (for me): I got Iconic Masters! (And Dragon's Maze, ahem.) Very excited to crack these open.
The bad news: I'm relatively certain that the draw for this grab bag was not random and/or the pool of potential outcomes is not what was originally stated. Why? Because someone left a list in my box showing the exact sets that were shipped.
Now to be clear, it is certainly *possible* for something like this to be generated randomly from the probabilities in the listing. But there are compelling reasons to doubt, and I will lay out a few of them here.
First, lack of accuracy to the stated list. The 100-unit limit for this drop implied that each 'percent' on the list corresponded to a single booster box. And yet three M2014 boxes shipped (2% chance). Second, too much uniformity. This tends to be a problem anytime a human being tries to "act random," and it looks to have happened here. For example, notice how sets with a 7% chance shipped exactly 3 units. It is again possible but quite unlikely to for that to have happened randomly. Third, not enough variety. In a way MD was unlucky that this paper ended up in my box, as I have a decent statistics background. I ran a series of simulations to determine how many different sets we would expect to see in a group of 30 randomly selected boxes (the number shipped in this case) given the probabilities in the listing. The answer is 18; the chances of selecting 12 (or less) total different sets (which supposedly happened here) is around 0.1%, or 1 in 1000.
And finally, the fact that this ordered, hand-written list even exists. Any process for 'randomly' choosing something in 2018 is going to involve a computer or phone. Why wouldn't the end result of said process remain on said computer or phone (or if absolutely needed, be printed out)? And honestly even if, for some reason, legit results were copied down onto this paper, the list should not have been alphabetically re-ordered as they were in this case, as that affects who gets which box.
In conclusion, this drop is a great idea but it is unlikely that MD actually followed the rules it set out for itself. Let me know what you think!
The bad news: I'm relatively certain that the draw for this grab bag was not random and/or the pool of potential outcomes is not what was originally stated. Why? Because someone left a list in my box showing the exact sets that were shipped.
Now to be clear, it is certainly *possible* for something like this to be generated randomly from the probabilities in the listing. But there are compelling reasons to doubt, and I will lay out a few of them here.
First, lack of accuracy to the stated list. The 100-unit limit for this drop implied that each 'percent' on the list corresponded to a single booster box. And yet three M2014 boxes shipped (2% chance). Second, too much uniformity. This tends to be a problem anytime a human being tries to "act random," and it looks to have happened here. For example, notice how sets with a 7% chance shipped exactly 3 units. It is again possible but quite unlikely to for that to have happened randomly. Third, not enough variety. In a way MD was unlucky that this paper ended up in my box, as I have a decent statistics background. I ran a series of simulations to determine how many different sets we would expect to see in a group of 30 randomly selected boxes (the number shipped in this case) given the probabilities in the listing. The answer is 18; the chances of selecting 12 (or less) total different sets (which supposedly happened here) is around 0.1%, or 1 in 1000.
And finally, the fact that this ordered, hand-written list even exists. Any process for 'randomly' choosing something in 2018 is going to involve a computer or phone. Why wouldn't the end result of said process remain on said computer or phone (or if absolutely needed, be printed out)? And honestly even if, for some reason, legit results were copied down onto this paper, the list should not have been alphabetically re-ordered as they were in this case, as that affects who gets which box.
In conclusion, this drop is a great idea but it is unlikely that MD actually followed the rules it set out for itself. Let me know what you think!
Kizzazle
40
May 5, 2018
I believe your story more than I don’t. Just had to point out that it’s not the best idea to just completely buy into one side or the other.
netzerotalent
4
May 19, 2018
agentmayhemI like this post a lot. This drop got me to do my own analysis a while back, and one of the assumptions I made was that they were making random choices without replacement, but that seems like it's not the case. I also didn't think of tracking the number of unique sets in a sample, so if this drop comes up again, I'll add both to my script to see how it shakes out.
I disagree about the list, however. It exists because someone ran their script (or however they chose), wrote down which boxes to get, and went back into the storeroom to grab them. I doubt they made an app for it, and a computer would be too bulky to keep referring to. My sample table was sorted by expected value, because that's what I was most interested in, but alphabetical makes the most sense if your goal is to grab the boxes as efficiently as possible.
They COULD have brought them back and assigned them to the buyers who selected them, but I think that's a little unlikely given how the rest of these drops have gone. I still think they're a bad deal, and even worse without a little transparency about their methods.
I disagree about the list, however. It exists because someone ran their script (or however they chose), wrote down which boxes to get, and went back into the storeroom to grab them. I doubt they made an app for it, and a computer would be too bulky to keep referring to. My sample table was sorted by expected value, because that's what I was most interested in, but alphabetical makes the most sense if your goal is to grab the boxes as efficiently as possible.
They COULD have brought them back and assigned them to the buyers who selected them, but I think that's a little unlikely given how the rest of these drops have gone. I still think they're a bad deal, and even worse without a little transparency about their methods.
Phaesic
42
Mar 5, 2018
Regardless of how they are randomizing these, there just isn't any way of verifying it. There are so many ways to scam the customer with Grab Bags that the only way its ever a good idea is when the cost is equal to the going rate of the cheapest box you might get (and you are actually ok with getting that box). I'm not saying Massdrop is out to scam people, but this is about being a smart consumer. The only longshot is if everyone who gets a box reports what they received personally.
Lemur57
13
Jan 26, 2018
So.... Who validates this to ensure we aren't being ripped off? I refuse to pay extra for garbage (Not actually, but definitely not my money's worth) JUST to feel the thrill that I MIGHT get somethign worth what i paid. In the first place, most of these can be bough elsewhere for a flat 80-90. People need to stop these shitpost drops and sell things legitimately. Whether they're ripping off here or not, the trend needs to stop. That, or we need a source to validate all such sales
seanmmasters
16
Mar 1, 2019
Every "grab bag", "lottery", "random rare lot", whether it's here, on eBay, or anywhere else, they all have one thing in common:
They're garbage.
Check the "odds" on this Massdrop. That isn't even a list of odds, it's a list of MTG sets each with a number listed at the end. What do the numbers mean? "That's the number of boxes out of 100." Is it? Or are you just assuming that to be the case? If it's true, how are there over 370 sold? If it's false, what's the actual total number of boxes? What if the numbers mean absolutely nothing?
Don't gamble on packs, just go buy a box of what you actually want or go buy the singles you want.
(Edited)
mdk167
9
Feb 3, 2018
So, 8 out of 49 boxes are accounted for and they are all low end boxes that we had a 7% chance of getting. Not likely that I will do one of these again unless Massdrop explains how boxes are selected, especially when less then 100 people buy (does a 1% box get eliminated because 1% of 49 is less then 1 box for example).
JimN
64
Jan 24, 2018
Wait a minute, are you telling me I have to play a lottery to get my lottery tickets now?
courtma41
45
May 21, 2019
Massdrop: Please stop posting this drop! Your seller is stealing peoples money and giving you a bad name.
Buyers: Please don't buy this losing lottery ticket! Just buy a box you really want!
Tamrian
6
Aug 10, 2018
I received Masters 25 and Dragon's Maze with a note that asked me to share what I got as a person that received a "good box."
AwesomeSauceX2
25
Oct 23, 2018
TamrianI wouldn't buy a box of Dragons maze for 40$ there is no value in the set and you can buy a play set of commons and uncommons for 20$
realistically you got 150 M25 and 50$ DZ 200$ for 220$ it was a terrible deal.
realistically you got 150 M25 and 50$ DZ 200$ for 220$ it was a terrible deal.
A community member
Mar 3, 2019
Hey. Buyer. Whoever you are. Please stop with this. There are so many fun products of popular card games, and we're getting "random" garbage in 2 slots right now. Random booster box and random 50 rares. Enough is enough. You're better off getting the Mystery boxes in Walmart at this point and that's really, really sad.
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